Pondering on Paul Ricard - 2021 predictions

The Paul Ricard circuit is well-known for being a track where many dominant racers have won considerable amounts of titles, namely Michael Schumacher having achieved 8 and Alain Prost with 6 French race wins. The circuit is also known for being fast with speed traps and 2 DRS zones along the straights, as well as the chicanes to allow high-speed overtakes.

In 2018 and 2019 the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and both Red Bulls dominated the track which could create an exciting race for this year following Baku, especially with the morale of Red Bull being so high and the Mercedes wanting vengeance after Perez's win last race. This track is quite similar to Imola (like James Wells and I discussed in our Baku Review podcast) in the fact that Red Bull are very dominant on this circuit and have a good shot at producing a 1-2 on the podium, especially after both Red Bulls drove exceedingly well in practice today.

Lando Norris battling it out in his McLaren against Fernando Alonso in the Alpine at Friday practice

Qualifying is going to be very interesting as in 2018 the McLarens of Stoffel Vandoorne and Fernando Alonso did not even make it out of Q1 whilst the Sauber of Charles Leclerc made it into Q3 for the first time since 2015. However, the strength of McLaren this year is sure to put them in Q3, unless a significant crash occurs.

The usual weaker suspects like the Haas and Williams are most likely going to be knocked out of Q1; like always, we expect it because they are the weakest cars on the grid. Q2 will probably consist of the AlphaTauris and the Alpines along with a possible combination of the Aston Martins and Alfa Romeo - possibly Stroll over Vettel as Stroll has not had a good history at Paul Ricard and has never ventured further than Q1 - though at this time he was in a Williams and a Racing Point, so a lot could change. Q3 will most likely include the Mercedes, Red Bulls, McLarens, the Ferraris and with Mercedes's incredible performances at Paul Ricard in 2018 and 2019 it would be no surprise if they lock out the front row of the grid, though Verstappen will be fighting hard to prevent that.

The race should be even more interesting. The track produces some incredible racing, especially for our newer drivers such as Schumacher and Tsunoda, this Grand Prix should be a fruitful challenge for them as more mature drivers.

It is clear that there will be a huge fight between the Red Bulls and the Mercedes on Sunday and that revenge from Baku is hot in their minds, after such a shocking outcome from Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen. For us, it makes for amazing entertainment.

Will Norris gain a 3rd podium this season? He and his McLaren have been doing increasingly well throughout the season and France could be another chance to show his growth as a driver since his rookie season in 2019. He'll have to watch out though - he's got 8 penalty points on his license - 4 more and he'll have a race ban. Even more important is Ricciardo's place on the grid - he has not been doing as well as we thought in his new car in comparison to his teammate and he has had plenty of time to get used to it. We need to see multiple places gained this race or there is no way he is going to finish in a strong position at the end of the season.

Ferrari also has a good opportunity to achieve some big points this weekend with Charles Leclerc just missing out on a podium at Baku - still a very strong place for a Ferrari who last year only sat mid-grid. It is possible that Leclerc could be mixed in with the Hamilton/Verstappen fight after his fall short - his disappointment could fuel revenge for France. Sainz will probably remain where he has the majority of the season near his old teammate Norris in 5th to 9th - those 2 are clearly inseparable. Regardless, Ferrari have a huge opportunity to score big points this race if they try and avoid the Mercedes/Red Bull fight and focus on podiums.

We are all waiting for Russell to gain at least 1 point because he deserves it as a strong driver - his car is just very incompetent and does not match his talents like the Mercedes did last year. It is more likely than not that he will remain near the bottom with his teammate, Latifi and both Haas cars unless there is a red flag that could help him to gain some much needed places on the grid - his opportunity at Baku for this was thwarted by an engine failure which cost him.

The Alpines could be the dark horses like James mentioned, but equally they could blow it - after all Alonso didn't make it out of Q1 in his McLaren in 2018 so this could be his make or break. As for Ocon, much of the media has not mentioned him this year; he's been sat midfield or just into the points which is rarely noticed by the press and just because he is a very unnoticed character. He has the potential to get a few points though, which could increase his position in the Driver's Standings. This is also his home race like Pierre Gasly; they'll both be wanting to impress their home crowd which could push them to work harder.

Overall, this could be a very fruitful race with lots of twists and turns. It might not be as exciting and heart-pumping as Baku but it will certainly keep us on the edge of our seats as the last few race starts have produced crashes and cars running off the track in all directions - we'll just have to see what Paul Ricard brings to the table.